Joachim Guilliard, Nachgetragen, 9/1/2026
Translated by Tlaxcala
Joachim Guilliard (b. 1958) studied physics, works professionally as an IT consultant, and is active in the German peace movement. He has long been engaged with the Middle East, with a focus on Iraq, and is the author of numerous specialist articles as well as the co-editor and co-author of several books on war-affected countries in the region. Since 2009, he has run the blog “Nachgetragen”.
The strong wave of protest that spread in Iran at the end of 2025 against economic misery did not come as a surprise. The economic blockades steadily intensified over the course of the year and the direct military aggression by Israel and the USA in June have significantly exacerbated the country’s economic problems. The embargo Iran faces is as comprehensive and brutal as the one against Cuba.
While the country manages to somewhat cushion the effects by expanding trade with Russia, China, and its Asian neighbors, the financial losses and supply problems are still considerable. Among other things, they lead to a steady devaluation of the Iranian currency, growing loss of purchasing power, and persistently high inflation, which soared to over 50 percent after the blockades were reinstated by the US President in 2018 and has since averaged 35 percent. Other domestic crises are also exacerbated by the embargo. Millions of people, including from the middle class, are thus increasingly being driven into poverty. [1]
This is precisely the openly proclaimed goal of Trump. Iranians are to be driven to despair by a drastic deterioration in living conditions to the point where they rise up against the regime. This is in itself also the general calculation behind economic sanctions [2] and is also pursued by Berlin, Paris, and London. The UN and EU economic sanctions reactivated by them via “snapback” further devalued the exchange rate and drove inflation to almost 50 percent.
The trigger for the current protests was ultimately an extreme plunge in the exchange rate of the rial against the dollar. Merchants in Tehran’s bazaar consequently closed their shops and took to the streets. The rial had lost another 10 percent of its value within a few days. As this was exceptional even for an Iran accustomed to currency crashes, its leadership sees the “hand of the enemy” behind it. [3]
Although demonstrations spread to wide parts of the country, the hopes of the USA and its European allies have not been fulfilled so far. Even if Western media seek to convey a different impression, the protests are not aimed at overthrow the regime, but are predominantly directed against inflation, insecure employment, precarious living conditions, and the government’s inadequate measures to counter them.
In the tense situation, the government is reacting more restrainedly than in previous protests.[4] It declares the demands to be justified, seeks dialogue, and made initial concessions, such as tax relief for merchants and higher subsidies.[5] President Masoud Pezeshkian also admitted, however, that the government currently lacks the means to solve the economic crisis.[6]
Evidently, armed groups also endeavored to escalate demonstrations. In several provinces, there were violent riots, buildings were set on fire, and police stations attacked. Iranian security forces responded with corresponding severity. They also suspect, certainly not without reason, foreign interference.
Surveillance, charges, and arrests had increased since June, after drone attacks, assassinations, and sabotage from Iranian territory had shown the extent to which sensitive areas of the country had been infiltrated by Israeli and US intelligence services. Pro-Western opposition figures thus came under increased suspicion. As always, attacks, destabilization efforts, and economic blockades drastically narrow political spaces for the civil society .
But the Western strangulation measures and the massive support for anti-government forces in the country have nothing to do with efforts for freedom and democracy. They are also not primarily aimed at the Iranian nuclear program. The goal is the elimination of a regional power which, with its resource wealth, high level of education, and technological prowess, has enormous development potential. And which – similar to Venezuela – maintains strategic alliances with China, Russia, and other adversaries of the West, conducts trade bypassing the dollar, and due to its geographical location is a multipolar hub.
As there are no sufficiently strong forces within the country itself to install a pro-Western regime, the USA, Israel, and the EU aim to bring Iran down to the level of Syria, Iraq, or Lebanon.
Notes
[1] Iran nach dem Zwölf-Tage-Krieg, UZ vom 26. Dezember 2025
[2] Joachim
Guilliard, Arsenal des Faustrechts: Wirtschaftsblockaden,
Menschenrechte und der Widerstand des Südens, IMI-Studie 2024/4, 24. Mai 2024
[3] Sayyed Khamenei links currency devaluation to ‚enemy
hand’, Al Mayadeen, 3 Jan 2026
[4] Tehran adjusts its public tone as protests return, Iran International, 1.1.2026
[5] Iran President Moves to Calm Protests With Vow to Fix
Budget, Bloomberg, 30.12.2025, Iran Offers Citizens $7 a Month in a Bid to Cool
Protests, New York Times, 5.1.2026
[6] Iran’s Pezeshkian urges unity as protests over
economic woes turn deadly,
Aljazeera, 31/12/2025
