The result fell like a hammer blow: the reactionary candidate Abelardo de la Espriella defeated left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda on Sunday by less than a 1% margin (12,959,542 votes to 12,708,712). Below is an initial analysis of the results. –FG, Tlaxcala
The electoral landscape: two Colombias face to face
The
conservative strongholds of the centre and the Andes
Abelardo de
la Espriella built his victory on a clearly identified territorial base: the
departments of the country's centre, the Andean regions and part of the eastern
plains. Antioquia constitutes the heart of his electorate with 2.18
million votes (64.42%), more than one million ahead of his opponent. The
dominance there is overwhelming, as it is in Norte de Santander (76.56%)
and Santander (64.58%).
The
candidate also wins across the entire Coffee Axis (Caldas, Quindío,
Risaralda), in Tolima, Huila, Boyacá and Cundinamarca.
These departments, which concentrate a significant share of the population and
national GDP, provided the margins needed for his victory in the national
count. Cundinamarca and Antioquia are among the most populous
departments, which partly explains De la Espriella's final victory despite his
defeat in a greater number of departments.
The
progressive strongholds: Caribbean, Pacific and South
Iván
Cepeda, for his part, wins 19 departments (including Bogotá) against 13
for his opponent, but often with less densely populated areas. His
strongest bastions are in the peripheral regions:
- The
Colombian Pacific: Chocó (81.37%), Cauca (75.64%), Nariño
(76.72%), Valle del Cauca (60.82%).
- The
Amazonian South: Putumayo (78.52%), Vaupés (80.86%), Amazonas
(61.89%).
- The
Caribbean region: Bolívar (59.51%), Córdoba (58.28%), Atlántico
(58.61%), La Guajira (60.45%), Sucre (59.19%), Magdalena
(57.02%).
- Bogotá D.C.: the capital, with its 2.23
million votes (52.47%), constitutes a major urban stronghold for
Cepeda.
Valle
del Cauca offers a
particularly illustrative case: Cepeda obtains 1.4 million votes there,
a lead of 534,083 ballots over De la Espriella, confirming that this
department is one of the main strongholds of the left in Colombia.
The
electoral result in Botero style
Sociological
analysis of the divides
A
centre-periphery divide
The
electoral map draws a major geographic divide between:
- The central and Andean
departments:
economically more developed, home to traditional elites and industrial
centres (Medellín, Bucaramanga), they voted for the conservative
candidate.
- The peripheries: coastal regions (Caribbean,
Pacific) and border areas, historically marginalised, massively supported
the candidate for change.
This
opposition is not new in Colombia: it harks back to the historical distinction
between "conservative" Andean regions and "liberal" coastal
regions, which the contemporary political system has reactivated.
The
ethnic and racialized dimension
Departments
with large Afro-Colombian and indigenous populations voted
overwhelmingly for Iván Cepeda. This is particularly clear in Chocó
(81.37%), Cauca (75.64%) and Nariño (76.72%), regions where black
and indigenous communities are historically mobilised around issues of social
justice and recognition. The presence of Aida Quilcué, an indigenous figure, as
Cepeda's running mate, undoubtedly reinforced this support.
A
divided urban vote
The vote in
large cities is more mixed than it appears. Bogotá supports Cepeda, but
with a relatively modest margin (52.47%). Valle del Cauca votes for
Cepeda, but Medellín, the country's second city, is a stronghold of De la
Espriella. The results confirm an urban fracture, where the large
metropolises of the Andean regions lean right while those of the peripheries
(Cali, Barranquilla, Cartagena) lean left.
Tight
margins in key departments
Some
departments were highly contested, reflecting a deeply divided Colombian
society:
- Caquetá: Cepeda wins by a narrow
margin with 48.97% against 48.7%.
- Guaviare: De la Espriella wins with 52.78%.
- Vichada:
Cepeda prevails with 54.43%.
These
results testify to the absence of a homogeneous ideological stronghold in areas
of recent colonisation and border regions.
The
overseas vote
One notable
point: De la Espriella wins overwhelmingly among Colombians abroad
(63.76%), with 382,000 votes against 208,000 for Cepeda. This diaspora vote,
often composed of expatriate middle and upper classes, contributed
significantly to his victory.
Conclusion:
a geographically fractured Colombia
The 2026
runoff confirms Colombia's electoral geography as a space of tensions
between two visions of the country. The conservative candidate, De la
Espriella, was able to capitalise on the traditional strongholds of the centre
and the Andes, while Cepeda gathered an archipelago of peripheries: the
Pacific, the Caribbean, the Amazon and the capital.
This
configuration recalls that Colombia's political divide remains strongly territorialised,
with each region expressing distinct social, economic and identity-based
expectations. De la Espriella's narrow victory (a margin of less than 250,000
votes) means he will have to govern a country whose broad geographic half did
not grant him its trust.
